Qatar Masters: Carlsen - Batsiashvili, Khotenashvili - Kramnik and Other Games of Round 1. LIVE

Время публикации: 20.12.2015 15:13 | Последнее обновление: 20.12.2015 15:13


  


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If I calculate correctly, by

If I calculate correctly, by rating Carlsen has about a 20-25% chance of being the eventual victor, approximately the same chance he had in London (25%).

In round 1, of the top half

In round 1, of the top half (33) of the games, the average rating difference was about 246 Elo. This corresponds to scoring about 80% (26.5/33), maybe a tiny bit less when color effects are considered. The higher rated players scored 24.5 points, only 74%, and an underperformance of about 60 Elo. The top 10 did better than expected, scoring 8.5/10 for 85%, which corresponds to 301 Elo while the average difference was only 277.

Of course, the "Swiss Gambit" means that an early draw/loss is not always too harmful, though it will hurt your tiebreak. Pity Goryachkina did not hold a draw against So, as she would have then been paired against Carlsen.

The computer is mystified as to why Wei Yi resigned so soon, as I guess he never thought of Bb6, seemingly putting his bishop into a fork (Rd6+), but after Rxb6 his b-pawn rolls, so White has to try something else. Tricky, but he should still lose (White could play Rc8 either before or after). But with time pressure and psychology, who knows?